Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Will it be inflation or deflation?

Jesse's arguments for inflation seem compelling:
The US is a democratic republic and a huge net debtor, in both current and future obligations. The choice of genuine deflation as such would therefore be a national economic and political suicide favoring foreign holders of its debt. I cannot think of a reasonable scenario for such a choice except for coercion such as war reparations and under heavy constraint. But it is a possible choice.

Further complicating the decision is the inescapable fact that the US holds what is still the world's reserve currency despite a movement to alternatives. A stronger dollar and monetary deflation would crush the world economy by destroying the interconnected global banking system as it is now constituted, in addition to devastating its own domestic economy. Deflation does favor the ends of a powerful few, however, so it cannot be said to be off the table.
If the status of world currency works against domestic fiscal policy, one has entered the land of Triffin's Dilemma.